For those bored enough to be following along at home....
I have a possible new theory. I noticed a bit of play last evening in the powerpole connection from the power supply to the distribution bus on the tripod, and on inspection I have a defective connector, not sure if it is the interior pin or the external clip, but you can see below that the metal crimped-on insert that usually extends forward and clamps over the flat metal strip in the (red) connector is back from it.
I can move it forward and it will "click" down over it, but as soon as it is mated and then disconnected, it pops back. So it is quite possible this is loose against the feed connector and breaks contact.
Why it would do so at 3:39am twice is above my pay grade, but Murphy does work nights, and at least this is a potential cause.
Since not sure which is the problem going to crimp on a new connector. This is the first powerpole connector I have ever had issues with. Not 100% sure this is my problem but... .fix the known issue first is a basic engineering principle, right below "hit it with a bigger hammer".
And "Problems are always in the last place you look". :)